Why FGE NexantECA’s Biofuels Monthly belongs at the heart of your strategy

In today’s transition‑driven market, biofuels are no longer a peripheral option—they are an essential lever for delivering decarbonisation while protecting margin and market share. Yet the operating environment is unforgiving: trade flows are fluid, producer margins are squeezed, feedstock availability is inconsistent, and policy support shifts across regions and over time. That volatility makes short‑term clarity just as valuable as long‑term vision. FGE NexantECA’s Biofuels Monthly report is built precisely for this reality, giving senior decision makers an integrated, bottom‑up view of supply, demand, trade, pricing, and profitability across ethanol, biodiesel (FAME), renewable diesel (HVO), and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

The market problems you’re facing—directly addressed

First, fundamentals move fast. The report delivers regional and country‑level balances with explicit implications for trade flows, so you can see disruptions or opportunities early, before they show up in your P&L. Second, margins are dynamic. You receive price and margin forecasts that translate shifts in feedstock and fuel prices into actionable profitability signals, helping you adjust procurement, hedging, and utilisation decisions with confidence. Third, the policy overlay is decisive. FGE NexantECA provides detailed analysis of government policy impact and biofuel certificate markets, so you can frame commercial plans around what will actually be bankable in each jurisdiction.

USPs that separate Biofuels Monthly from generic market commentary

The service is engineered for decision‑readiness. You get a monthly PDF plus an Excel data set containing historical time series and forward‑looking forecasts across supply, demand, balances, prices, and producer margins—updated every month, with 18‑month outlooks and four years of history to underpin scenario work and internal dashboards. Coverage spans ethanol, biodiesel (FAME), renewable diesel (HVO), and SAF across Europe, North America, Latin America, and Asia, delivering both cross‑regional context and country‑specific granularity. The methodology is bottom‑up, built country‑by‑country, and triangulates multiple sources (public databases, intergovernmental organisations, trade data, subscriptions, and proprietary intelligence from market players), cleansed and validated by senior specialists. Crucially, analysis is enriched with senior opinion and decades of FGE experience across oil, refining, and new energy, bringing a cross‑commodity perspective that many pure‑play datasets miss.

Industry issues covered—translated into strategic foresight

Europe’s HVO trajectory: Biofuels Monthly tracks how regulatory mechanics drive HVO demand growth by feedstock category. For example, potential changes in Germany’s double‑counting rules for advanced feedstocks and caps on Annex IX Part B materially influence the mix and scale of demand in Northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, and Central/Eastern Europe. Knowing whether growth will be led by Annex IX Part A feedstocks—or constrained by transposition delays of RED III, helps you plan feedstock contracting, blending strategies, and certificate positioning.

U.S. RINs and BOHO spread dynamics: The report dissects how changes in soybean oil prices, ULSD movements, and EPA decisions around Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) propagate through D4 RINs and the BOHO spread, revealing margin compression risks for biodiesel producers. This is exactly the kind of near‑term signal you need for offtake timing, hedging calibration, and plant utilisation choices.

Asia’s mandate realities: FGE NexantECA evaluates the gap between mandate ambition and practical rollout. Indonesia’s movement around B40 and an eyed B50 timeline are analysed alongside infrastructure constraints and historical delays—so you can distinguish headline targets from bankable demand, and allocate capital and inventory to the markets that will actually absorb volumes on schedule.

Across these themes, Biofuels Monthly doesn’t just report data, it frames the “so what”: trade flow shifts, blending rates, competition between biodiesel and renewable diesel, price spreads (e.g., SAF vs. jet fuel, SAF vs. renewable diesel), and certificate outlooks (including RINs). That turns information into strategic advantage.

What you can do with it—immediately

• Optimise feedstock and offtake: Use country‑level demand by feedstock, forward price outlooks, and certificate analysis to lock in supply where policy and economics align, and avoid chasing volumes in markets that are policy‑constrained.

• Protect margins: Apply producer margin forecasts and BOHO/RIN insights to refine your hedging playbook, rebalance production between biodiesel and HVO, and time sales to capture favourable spreads.

• Prioritise capital and market entry: Combine regional balances, trade flow implications, and mandate timelines to target expansions, JV discussions, or new distribution with the highest probability of near‑term payoff.

• Align stakeholders: The monthly cadence, structured datasets, and access to FGE’s consultants and webinars help you brief boards and partners with evidence‑based narratives rather than opinion.

Delivery model that fits executive workflows

Subscription goes beyond a PDF: you receive the monthly report, the Excel database, an online client portal, consultations with FGE analysts, invitations to complimentary market‑update webinars, and ongoing access to the New Energy team, so intelligence is continuous, interactive, and tailored. Because the analysis is built on FGE’s broader New Energy and oil market expertise, you can integrate biofuels decisions with your cross‑commodity strategy, from refining to trading to downstream.

Bottom line: invest to convert volatility into advantage

Biofuels Monthly is not a nice‑to‑have report, it is a decision platform for a market where months matter. If you are accountable for profit, risk, and decarbonisation outcomes, the combination of short‑term fundamentals, margin foresight, policy intelligence, and expert consultation will improve your timing, sharpen your contracts, and de‑risk your growth. In a space defined by mandates, certificates, and feedstock competition, that edge translates directly into returns.

About Us - FGE NexantECA is the leading advisor to the energy, refining, and chemical industries. Our clientele ranges from major oil and chemical companies, governments, investors, and financial institutions to regulators, development agencies, and law firms.  Using a combination of business and technical expertise, with deep and broad understanding of markets, technologies, and economics, FGE NexantECA provides solutions that our clients have relied upon for over 50 years.