Cost Curves

Technology & Costs

NexantECA’s Cost Curve Analysis program combines key elements from its well-known Markets and Profitability program and Technology and Costs program into an interactive cost curve model.

From NexantECA’s Market Analytics program, the model incorporates our global plant capacity database and regional and country level operating rates. We then combine our annual price forecasts, developed for three oil scenarios, with our extensive cost of production database developed through our Technoeconomics – Energy & Chemicals (TECH) program that allows us to estimate operating costs for plants across the globe. Together, these elements serve as the foundation of the Cost Curve Analysis program that offers views of historical, current, and forecast cost competitiveness and profitability for the industry. 

Key features of the NexantECA Cost Curve Analysis model include: 

  • Global coverage with breakdown into major regions and/or countries 

  • Annual cash cost of production and cash margin presented by plant 

  • Historical (5 years) and forecast (10 years) cost curves including NexantECA’s low, medium, and high oil scenarios for forecast years 

  • User defined functionality allowing the user to select the year and crude oil scenario. For integration with downstream derivatives, users can develop a custom transfer price basis 

  • User defined plant call-out capability to identify specific plants on the cost curve including summary tables that identify the plant company, location, process, cash cost, and cash margin 

  • User defined hypothetical plant investment scenario to evaluate the competitiveness of a new plant, and custom price inputs for key raw materials  

  • Excel-based with a menu-driven user interface 

NexantECA’s Cost Curve Analysis program covers a broad range of products: 

  • Olefins: Ethylene, Propylene, Butadiene 

  • Polyolefins: HDPE, LLDPE, LDPE, Polypropylene 

  • Aromatics: Benzene, Toluene, Styrene 

  • Fertilizers: Ammonia, Urea 

  • Methanol and Derivatives: Methanol, Acetic Acid, Vinyl Acetate 

  • Polyester Intermediates: para-Xylene, EO, MEG, PTA, PET 

  • Propylene Derivatives: Acrylic Acid, Acrylonitrile, Cumene, Phenol, Acetone, BPA, Polycarbonate, Propylene Oxide, Butanediol 

  • Vinyls: Chlor-Alkali, EDC, VCM, PVC 

  • Renewables: HVO (Diesel, Jet, Naphtha, LPG) 

  • Others: Maleic Anhydride, PBT, and more