Technology and Costs
Cost Curve Analysis
Nexant Energy & Chemicals Advisorys Cost Curve Analysis program is a new offering that combines three key elements from Nexant’s well-known Markets and Profitability program and Technology and Costs program into an interactive cost curve model. The first element is our global plant capacity database and regional and country level operating rates drawn from our Market Analytics program. The second element is NexantECA’s extensive cost of production database developed through our Technoeconomics – Energy & Chemicals (TECH) program that allows us to estimate operating costs for plants across the globe. Finally, the third key element of the Cost Curve Analysis program is NexantECA’s annual price forecasts, developed for three oil scenarios, across a broad range of refinery, energy, and petrochemical products. Together, these elements serve as the foundation of the program that offers views of historical, current, and forecast cost competitiveness and profitability for the industry.
Key features of the NexantECA Cost Curve Analysis model include:
- Global coverage with breakdown into major regions and/or countries
- Annual cash cost of production and cash margin presented by plant
- Historical (5 years) and forecast (10 years) cost curves including Nexant’s low, medium, and high oil scenarios for forecast years
- User defined functionality allowing the user to select the year and crude oil scenario. For integration with downstream derivatives, user can develop a custom transfer price basis
- User defined plant call-out capability to identify specific plants on the cost curve including summary tables that identify the plant company, location, process, cash cost, and cash margin
- Ability to plot a hypothetical plant investment scenario on the cost curve to evaluate the competitiveness of a new plant and to input your own prices for key raw materials
- Excel-based with a menu-driven user interface
In addition to the interactive Excel-based cost curve model, the Cost Curve Analysis program includes reports that cover global operating plants in NexantECA’s database including new plant capacity that is expected to come on line in the future. The reports provide the basis and our analyses of industry competitiveness for the current year.
NexantECA currently covers olefins and polyolefins as part of new Cost Curve Analysis program:
- Olefins (Ethylene and Propylene)
- Ethylene and Polyethylene (LDPE, LLDPE, HDPE)
- Propylene and Polypropylene
Additional value chains and derivative products will be added as the program expands.