Traditionally hydrogen is generated from fossil feedstock and processes that emit significant amounts of CO2. In comparison, renewable or green hydrogen production results in materially lower emissions. Green hydrogen holds significant potential and interest for decarbonization of sectors that have previously been difficult to decarbonize. This includes both existing applications (e.g., refining, feedstock for chemicals) as well as emerging applications (e.g., e-methanol, e-ammonia, e-SAF), as well as potential in direct use for carbon emission free combustion. Growing interest in low carbon intensity hydrogen has stemmed from mounting net zero pledges and decarbonization goals, and an increasing focus on the energy transition. Production options explored several global regions and technologies covering thermochemical (biomass gasification), bio-methane reforming, electrolysis, and other advanced pathways from a technical, economic (cost of production model), and capacity level. A discussion of implications for the conventional technologies is also included.

This report offers a comprehensive techno-economic analysis of newly commercial and emerging methane pyrolysis technologies for the production of “turquoise” hydrogen, which can be produced from both fossil and renewable methane sources and produces a carbon byproduct that can be sequestered or displace existing fossil products. Technologies including thermal plasma, uncatalyzed pyrolysis, catalytic pyrolysis, molten metal/molten salt, and non-thermal plasma are covered, and key players within each major route have their technical maturity and processes profiled. Process economics are also provided for thermal plasma processes. The report also includes an analysis of turquoise hydrogen in the context of other low-carbon hydrogen routes.

This report provides profitability and price projections to 2045 for ammonia and urea.  The main price setting regions of Asia Pacific, Western Europe and the United States are analysed.

Market Scenario Planning: Green Ammonia report provides NexantECA’s scenario forecast for green ammonia demand out to 2045 by key region and application (marine fuel, power generation, hydrogen carrier, fertilizer derivatives and industrial end uses).  Scenarios forecast demand based on low, base and high assumptions whereby underlying policy, cost learning curves and adoption of green ammonia in each application evolves in fundamentally different ways.  As well as the scenarios, detail on the current situation of the market and key market drivers (carbon intensity, market pressure, cost competitiveness and policy) are provided.This report is part of our new Market Scenario Planning program which looks at emerging products, market events and end-use industries where scenario forecasting provides more value due to the higher uncertainty associated with the subject.  Scenarios are defined as low, base and high and are informed by NexantECA’s expert knowledge of chemical, fuel and fertilizer markets.